Let's look at the US Chamber of Commerce's April 2004 Job.... release. It makes a lot of references to marginal data and opinions. No real, verifiable data on the amount of foreign direct investments into the US. Well, how can one take serious a report that has this to say about goods and services;
From US Chamber of Commerce's release page 8. “... we sell more goods and services abroad than any other nation.”
I guess they haven't looked at the 2004 trade deficit.
It is my opinion that there is a data set that can be used to determine if the US is still going through a “jobless recovery” phase. If one is not working and is still alive then one must be getting the necessary resources to obtain food (legally).
Food Stamp Data
| YEAR | Average Participation (in Thousands) | Rate of Change (AP2 – AP1) / (Y2 – Y1) |
|---|---|---|
| 1969 | 2878 | - |
| 1970 | 4340 | 1462 |
| 1971 | 9368 | 5028 |
| 1972 | 11109 | 1741 |
| 1973 | 12166 | 1057 |
| 1974 | 12862 | 696 |
| 1975 | 17064 | 5202 |
| 1976 | 18549 | 1485 |
| 1977 | 17077 | -1472 |
| 1978 | 16001 | -1076 |
| 1979 | 17653 | 1652 |
| 1980 | 21082 | 3429 |
| 1981 | 22430 | 1358 |
| 1982 | 21717 | -713 |
| 1983 | 21625 | -92 |
| 1984 | 20854 | -771 |
| 1985 | 19899 | -955 |
| 1986 | 19429 | -470 |
| 1987 | 19113 | -316 |
| 1988 | 18645 | -458 |
| 1989 | 18806 | 161 |
| 1990 | 20049 | 1243 |
| 1991 | 22625 | 2576 |
| 1992 | 25407 | 2782 |
| 1993 | 26987 | 1580 |
| 1994 | 27474 | 487 |
| 1995 | 26619 | -855 |
| 1996 | 25543 | -1076 |
| 1997 | 22858 | -2685 |
| 1998 | 19791 | -3067 |
| 1999 | 18183 | -1608 |
| 2000 | 17194 | -989 |
| 2001 | 17316 | 122 |
| 2002 | 19095 | 1779 |
| 2003 | 21259 | 2164 |
| 2004 | 23858 | 2599 |
Food Stamps: Avg and Rate of Change
The 'average participation' is not a good number to use because of changes in the program and its requirements. However, one can use the rate of change to gain some useful information. Plot the above data using your favorite spreadsheet application. The rate of change data does point out that after every recession prior to the 2001 recession, the rate of change has always went negative. Bush is the only President whose rate of change data has not gone negative. This indicates that the US is still going through a “jobless recovery”. The rate of change has always gone positive before a recession. Technically the US is still in recession. The Employment Situation Report indicates that this is true.
The US economic recovery is being financed by the “carry trade”. Once the dust settles after the complete collapse of the US economy and people ask “How did this happen?” Will history record CNBC, under the direction of GE, was like the “Nazi Propaganda Ministry, under the direction of Dr. Joseph Goebbels”? Shouldn't CNBC change its slogan to “Justifying GE's Tax Breaks”?
They, meaning the National Bureau of Economic Research, declared that based on GDP the recession was over in 2001. The NEBR, is made up of Wall Street and Washington DC. elites whom all support tax cuts and off-shoring. Reality has no place in their biased views. Wall Street doesn't make any money on the truth. Look at what is happening to AIG.
This is the chain of events that will unfold in the coming months that will “shatter the mirror and clear the smoke” from BushCo's “smoke and mirror” economy. The cause and effect of events can be explained by an “effective global investor's strategy”. This investor's strategy is to invest in China without the risk of investing in China. The best way to achieve this investment strategy is to put money into the US, specifically, to put money into those companies' equities that are currently in China and instruments that are currently risk free. The risk free instruments are US Treasuries and the perceived risk free instruments are the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. See: Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Regulatory reform of the government-sponsored enterprises Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate April 6, 2005
The money for the global investor is courtesy of the Federal Reserve. The money is due to the “carry” trade.
This strategy is currently making the global investor money, however, the Federal Reserve is increasing the short term interest rate. The global investor is in the same mine set as somebody who is deciding to take out a mortgage as he/she watches interest rates increase, they all pile in. That same mentality is at work now reflected in the inflow data, investors are piling into the US before the free US dollar is no longer free. This is the reason why inflow data is all of a sudden strong. Its not because global investors have changed their collective mines about the US economy, but because the free money is about to run out.
There is another risk that the global investor has to maintain a vigil; China has a Communist government and they pegged their currency to the US dollar. China has placed a ceiling on commodity prices its consumers pay. This implies that the expectation of yield of the global investor is being eroded by a command economy. This implies that the marginal efficiency of the global investor's capital is decreasing.
These two events will combine to unravel Bush's Fiscal policy. This will happen once short term interest rate is above the rate of inflation and/or China clamps down on inflation by adding more and lower already existing ceilings its citizens pay. BANG!!! Orange County, California default type meltdown on a national scale. The global investor will look else where to make money, EU?, now that they have agree to destabilize their currency.
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